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Risk performance

Risk analytics are at the heart of what we do. You trust us with your money, and we don’t take that responsibility lightly.

How have returns performed against expectations?

We measure investors' returns performance by comparing expected returns to actual returns.

We monitor lifetime default rates very closely: if it's lower than the expected, we pass on all benefit directly to our investors; likewise, if default rates are higher than expected, then investor returns will be lower than expected.

Returns: Expected vs. actual of loans originated in their respective year

Graph showing expected returns compared to actual returns

* We don't expect further defaults prior to 2013, but there may be further recoveries coming in, which would increase actual returns

  • Estimated annual return

    Weighted average return (taking loan size into account), minus any fees and expected losses.

  • Actual annual return

    Weighted average return (taking loan size into account), minus any fees and actual losses so far.

  • Actual annual return so far

    Loans originated after 2013 are still outstanding and actual lifetime default rates will still evolve.

Last updated 12 September 2018

How have default rates performed against expectations?

In order to meet expected returns for our investors, we're dependent on how accurately we can predict defaults. A borrower is considered in default after missing four months' worth of repayments. We set an expected default rate at the start of each loan and update it as the loan performs ('revised projected defaults').

View risk data in more detail

Defaults: Expected vs. actual

Graph showing expected defaults compared to actual defaults

* We don't expect further defaults prior to 2013, but there may be further recoveries coming in, which would increase actual returns

  • Default expectations at loan origination

    Amount of defaults we expect over the lifetime of loans when we originated them.

  • Revised default expectations

    Updated amount of defaults we expect over the lifetime of loans. Revised periodically.

  • Actual defaults

    Total defaulted loan amounts, as a percentage of amount lent in the calendar year.

  • Actual defaults so far

    Loans originated after 2013 are still outstanding and actual returns will still evolve.

Last updated 12 September 2018

What happens if default rates differ from our expectations?

We use our expected lifetime default rates for loans to inform the target return for investors. We monitor this lifetime default rate very closely, and if it’s lower than expected we pass on all benefit directly to our investors. Likewise, if default rates are higher than expected then investor returns will be lower than expected.

See scenario analysis

Important information

Before you go any further, remember past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. And forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Read more about risk information.

Our risk statement has all the details.

Zopa's public loan book showing historical performance is available for download.

We're here to help

Since 2005, more than 76,000 investors and institutions have lent over £3.81bn with us.

Monday to Thursday (8am to 8pm), and Friday (8am to 5pm).

Email: contactus@zopa.com

Telephone: 020 7291 8331

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