Back to Zopa risk performance

We have more than 12 years’ experience of successfully managing risk

As a result, we have a wealth of information we can use to inform our underwriting and credit scoring strategies to effectively manage risk.

Expected versus actual defaults

When a loan is approved, we make an assumption about the likelihood of default over the full term of the loan ("Expected defaults at origination"). As a loan ages, we compare expected default rates from when the loan began to the actual defaults to date. This allows us to revise our projections of lifetime default rates ("Revised projected defaults"). Arrears are a valuable indicator of defaults that are likely to take place in the near term, and we take these into account when revising our predictions.

Since the introduction and inclusion of higher risk markets (D and E) in Zopa Plus, default rates (both actual and expected) have increased slightly. We anticipated this, and have factored it into all our risk analyses.

Expected defaults at origination Actual defaults so far % of loans repaid to date Revised projected defaults Actual arrears (>45 days) Risk markets available to retail investors
2017 5.04% 0.26% 10% 5.30% 0.32% A*- E
2016 4.14% 2.29% 40% 4.27% 0.54% A*- E
2015 2.88% 2.81% 67% 3.47% 0.24% A*- C
2014 2.06% 1.89% 87% 1.97% 0.13% A*- C
2013 1.30% 0.66% 97% 0.66% 0.01% A*- C
2012 1.26% 0.65% 99% 0.65% 0.01% A*- C
2011 1.72% 0.66% 100% A*- C
2010 2.31% 1.48% 100% A*- C
2009 2.43% 1.28% 100% A*- C
2008 3.58% 4.20% 100% A*- C
2007 2.74% 0.40% 100% A*- C
2006 1.28% 0.13% 100% A*- C
2005 1.01% 0.00% 100% A - B

Last Updated: 1st August 2017

Table legend

Expected defaults at origination:
Total defaults we expect over the lifetime of loans when we originated them, as a percentage of the amount lent in the calendar year.
Actual defaults so far:
Total defaults we have observed to date, as a percentage of the amount lent in the calendar year.
% of loans repaid
 to date:
The total amount that has been paid back of the amount lent in the calendar year.
Revised projected defaults:
Revised defaults we expect over the lifetime of loans based on actual performance to date, as a percentage of the amount lent in the calendar year.
Actual arrears (>45 days):
Total amount more than 45 days late but not defaulted, as a percentage of all loans made in the calendar year.

This data reflects all markets that are currently available to retail investors.

We're working with the P2PFA to agree standard statistics which show borrowers' non-repayment performance.

Peer-to-Peer Finance Association logo

Important information

Before you go any further, remember past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. And forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Read more about risk information.

Zopa's public loan book showing historical performance is available for download.

We're here to help

Since 2005, more than 76,000 investors and institutions have lent over £2.87bn with us.

And we've just extended our opening hours: Monday to Thursday (8am to 8pm), and Friday (8am to 5pm).

Holiday opening hours:

December 25th to 26th: Closed
December 27th to 29th: 9am to 5:30pm
January 1st: Closed

Email: contactus@zopa.com

Telephone: 020 7291 8331

UK residents only. Calls may be monitored or recorded.